Search results for "transmission dynamics"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach
2013
Academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, and particularly in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In order to analyse this problem, we propose a mathematical model via a system of ordinary differential equations to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, a bootstrapping approach is employed. This technique permits to for…
Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model
2016
[EN] Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as t…
Data from: Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles
2017
Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seas…